新手上路
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- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
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3 ~: L# X% O+ S) H' ?GM Overview; h- |8 U1 P# e" f
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs3 B" z3 M8 M: r4 f3 a' S2 P
• Objectives8 m" n% N5 _, L& @1 }! j! B: i
– What do we “WANT” to do?$ n: M1 E$ l9 Y) L' n# [4 Y# v
• External Analysis7 F# d5 H9 ]1 p3 O9 ?: D$ E+ G
– What do we “NEED” to do?+ W/ y- a1 }; Z5 i$ O
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade& }4 }2 T' j; E2 U: D. \
• opportunities & threats9 q2 j3 ~- h( L- j8 z$ N
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs5 x/ S/ Q, m0 F6 W3 G9 S
• Internal Analysis- {+ Z+ c: w; u
– What “CAN” we do?
0 L4 @: n1 Y" h7 F: Z– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR9 p- Z/ I1 p# ]. [
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses# v* O8 u# E2 s* A: M
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
! y8 b, k' y" m' Y6 ]0 c
+ P0 y! |9 y. J. @5 k• Alternative Evaluation$ w2 @- n& u4 w2 O6 [
– What are the options?# A' z5 e9 ?$ W1 {9 |8 z
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options& r% s! m- P- Q. c
– How does this option “FIT”?
4 A8 e) l5 I+ i6 s. f$ z: o* ^– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
6 j/ R. O- b( T, P( {+ B+ ?7 K" Q, Q– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) 2 t; A" V8 g( D) |4 ?
! z4 S* d. C' \
• Decision
* ?- g. `# ?! t7 c9 j. h– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).0 q9 i+ g1 D7 z( U# ~, I
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING& c5 d; K" m5 c$ t
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?# @3 e$ r; U4 O& j* L
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?) J5 z0 [, V* {2 ^! K
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
# D) i1 y _. f; f* F! }• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)1 K4 N7 C, ^& I7 ?
• Why NOT the other options?
" D+ `' I" A; q• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes' M: m, j% L$ n5 L) G% H
need to be made?+ k, k; S* U) C+ V7 T. }
, F6 }9 L+ e& j/ ^
• Action Plan3 y, U; v/ d, @. G; C: m2 h
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;0 [/ K+ s/ X3 r- ]2 J( p% K$ {# w0 Q
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
/ C7 X m- K: H. o- M* kdecision5 ~- m( Q8 K* R
– details about timing
) g6 d. M- }+ m6 |– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
4 N" H$ L8 c/ ] C X3 v+ ]– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)- ~2 h2 S: J a# k( D
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term. n' i' d5 v; k* u, W
+ n1 _1 }1 a# N' wFirm Valuation( K3 E1 E$ ^/ ~
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
8 u" p% z4 n j6 B• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
) ^% r7 m) a. |; h– Net Book Value
& b4 L8 [* H. a– Economic Appraisal, C$ n- X/ l0 R0 s2 G- x
– Capitalization of Earnings
) n% D) k) Y4 x' g, l0 {• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
, ?& g# V9 C: q3 qcompany is worth.
8 ?7 S; N1 K# i- L$ m4 Y• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???: ?* {0 X% ]% u' C
* K8 M: D! H3 m. T
Net Book Value (NBV)
7 g' K$ r+ @' ~! Y; X. t6 j4 C/ B– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
. i7 h, e4 M+ M% q" v! c• a.k.a.. the equity
0 _2 l& \, F. z8 {; [1 K– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
% n: o* k+ S' w4 o7 R K3 [– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet- H! D M4 e& c- m
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
) Y# f2 I& u8 D8 W4 q1 ^
5 J# c4 A0 a) w! j) R) r9 N Economic Appraisal (EA)
9 ]- L2 d3 }2 d( Y7 J– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
- K4 Z0 E: m& J3 ?2 C) Y! u– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities) o4 c+ J V/ ~2 |7 O. B
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
( K' F0 D1 O+ S/ L, `# N) y" v
7 J1 H+ @' t! ?% u Capitalization of Earnings (CE)8 H" f3 o+ X7 U, g! m
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S, e2 N. d! S" K& L: L' |
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
. w' u* S* F* b+ z– NPAT * P/E ratio = value& J* c3 C- ~" D2 q
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
5 I4 i8 Q4 R f: e$ d" r5 | ?. `• Assuming changes (projected statement)
g& h+ z5 g9 e0 W• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)' k; |% b* T* ~4 ^$ b' l
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple: P1 q6 i; z! \6 [' {( F7 E ~
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
4 T2 o1 ]$ `' N7 d4 }# _+ b: C. v) I. H9 o) a8 f
• P/E Multiple
; l" _% ^5 O7 \* c1 R$ w– Rules of thumb;% H: b8 h4 ~. O( S
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples$ y! C h& u; V* Q9 m$ N( K8 p
from 5 to 15.( X8 {. l& |4 J7 a, \8 I4 ~& O
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.5 V4 W5 ~% f# t* b
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”3 F3 I: w, G2 N
– growth increases a multiple1 d4 i R3 O- I3 Z7 }
– risk decreases a multiple
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Their Associated Ratios6 q" @9 S: r2 y& \# M0 `( |0 U! q
• Profitability;
; j2 A' \+ d8 J– Business goal - to make $$
2 k5 I( j" e- P' ?& Y– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
/ c( o' i: P- |# q! M• Stability;
' E7 ^0 Q* T0 ?& A' x% A4 E, Q– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
! _) y' F R0 Q5 m, B– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts& O3 `% ~) _; s3 o) Z& V
6 L7 n. W+ @( j9 E% t
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios( I5 J$ T! a& U3 i, G$ g1 p+ `
• Liquidity;
4 c. B5 R. O U7 x& q– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
6 o0 X/ g4 E) A/ \$ S– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
. m! R7 p! e- Tobligations)+ ~# E% a- W$ w$ c- K' ]$ x
• Efficiency;4 K v' `& a2 U+ |: E6 y) X3 O
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
2 B5 D- r; K% d4 ~3 k) q G– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
4 N2 `; k# b0 F- t/ ~* a" j. c: k3 P f3 V) P, x. p& u9 o
• Growth;- }0 E' M8 \. \1 I+ r0 p
– Business goal - to increase in size
2 v$ e6 Q( Y1 L– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth2 @0 F- T- a6 w9 ~6 N4 G
- U5 c7 i/ D6 Q9 n* C( s
Interpreting the Ratios' ?! K4 I# ~* v( ~$ ?. T5 n/ h
• Profitability;6 f9 W0 a( T$ Q& z5 \0 z: G$ u. n
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)) \* a- r. M! X3 I5 X
I/S items * 100 = % 6 B7 k3 Q' d4 T8 F! _& c4 P
Sales- N7 c' }0 M+ {% ]$ ]
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
3 ^+ P9 S- C3 g0 R( k– Return on Investment/Equity/ `: V# j! H2 P4 w; x
Profit ATB4D = %
) `6 `% I. M# Y) L. \) q4 HAverage Equity
) f3 l) U% X. L/ {4 t) T% a[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]8 Z) u# P7 `3 J8 ^2 A8 r! h' V
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
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• Stability;
3 ?: S0 y0 f a- p& T+ {) J– Net Worth: Total Assets( Y7 J* _; |6 f7 j; F# X' U9 @: c8 y
Total Equity = %
) [/ d( i4 b* [. V+ I+ d7 s2 R5 [Total Assets
, S2 O) K/ ]& f1 I+ f* e! K% ^• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money2 \3 T. G8 f5 m D/ B; _/ K( p
– Debt to Assets
, \& k3 h& w: ~( `, h( a/ KTotal Debt = %
( f" w* c# s0 w+ P. l$ MTotal Assets( j* D0 K2 C) C& z' Z* T1 `
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
+ s& e) {! q! d* X% j" _* Z– Interest Coverage
; D' q+ R. @0 C) c0 X O" {8 j* v EBIT = # times: p3 q. y1 l( f# `1 |
Interest Expense, O: m- ?' b, p, `+ `- b$ d2 i
• tells us how many times we can pay interest/ F! D T: l" u+ h# M
8 S( f; p3 Q" h
• Liquidity;! }6 S* E% x$ ~1 b7 c; F4 F9 K
– Current Ratio
+ _3 ?5 P6 ~& V1 rCurrent Assets = X:1, M y' h+ j7 E) Q, G8 Q
Current Liabilities& F6 G, ?) ^ G, \2 J7 r
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
' |; b% L6 F6 z( MRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
( t( U/ ?1 V" o% N2 G' T– Acid Test
, V; ~' J2 M& K+ k5 Q. @8 tCash + M/S + A/R = X:1
2 |, `- I, E, X4 n% k1 _( Y2 ~, oCurrent Liabilities W" m; d* U E t
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us5 y I" e2 |8 C3 k: X, m
RULE OF THUMB: 1:1
* j) n+ }) s/ w- C
9 p9 {. x/ S* q* h% ] A– Working Capital
, D; n# q8 z# _C.A - C.L = $X2 ~2 C0 F; C) P
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
3 B' K- f% w+ ~7 x2 l' Q, P
; a3 n, v* M$ @4 sEfficiency;
$ u) x3 |; }. z& [+ S– Age of Receivables
* O4 @9 r) x# T" k6 ~, f7 I. TAccounts Receivabl = # Days
, g1 }0 r+ u" B/ i (Sales / 365)
% ?* V/ a: \, m8 q# V* i• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
- S1 Q* o. k' r& Z, K
" ?8 Y, Y/ v q4 g6 e. q9 l. B– Age Of Payables- ]& {6 C& X' a2 d* ^) U
Accounts Payable = # Days O/ y' C6 T) I' X B) I
(Purchases* / 365)
" Q& [ B" x9 K# Y4 V6 ]• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills1 N& p$ G, Y ?3 {4 B! q8 f/ Y
2 X: ?9 I* k' `) _
– Age of Inventory
6 c/ k' V1 G H Inventory = # Days8 S( O6 j- Z9 L8 w
(COGS / 365)+ F( T) }% w/ P0 m- O
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse) l" j/ C7 U0 n
% j' a. c# t8 ^0 Q; f5 [3 ]• Growth;
_ W2 l2 c2 g. {– Sales# P6 W6 R. Q( R$ U: k4 s
– Net Income
' G0 Y; t8 Q1 U6 {– Total Assets3 i0 A- p0 j! A t: S$ q4 }
– Equity
1 l2 f$ w+ V9 S7 c' FYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = % }3 f4 ?* x( s/ a; _$ y( s: h
Yr. 1: @0 l7 a( c' ~. h$ d) J
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
7 m: g+ E' r" D4 \
) k5 e6 p' K* N# dUnderstanding Ratios
! E! g8 A6 {$ z" s& ~' Z, |- E• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”( H& E. M# v% s, |- o
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio$ i4 T z- F- ^+ \, P
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
4 {' H3 J# R0 L6 N– Which number caused the change?. j9 p5 z3 s8 r) T4 y4 R
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.9 m- D, J" z1 ]# O; l- o
– Will these trends continue?
$ n, w) p( A- [; ~' ?8 Y– How does the company compare to the industry?
. a2 ^( a2 w' e2 q0 [' ]7 d* m7 J+ [( L" O
9 ~$ L2 ]$ L4 u" w& f+ SClassifying Costs1 e1 N8 D; s! g8 S6 I
• Variable Costs/ ]0 j# J; O; }1 x% y6 h
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
- R: G# ]* B3 }0 V- H• Fixed Costs- H4 \+ l* \) H, n9 R/ t) e# T0 v
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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