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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
5 B) W" m% g/ y! d/ v- `. V& l2 [* ]9 ?+ q, h6 S8 j' x1 s, E' l. x+ w
GM Overview
P! b5 a8 n/ V• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
+ d1 L3 m& |" e% i p1 a- g9 `0 O0 U* x* M• Objectives
% [, b( }, N/ B; {– What do we “WANT” to do?/ O7 @' T: R" M) R
• External Analysis# Q# M' d3 W: s \2 L
– What do we “NEED” to do?
" v' r) S# u: _& D6 k– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade! q i) h- P7 B! T+ Z7 B3 h
• opportunities & threats1 p1 H7 u& q' g
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
/ S; `5 a* v0 J• Internal Analysis$ f3 D7 O/ V; L# |, \) v w
– What “CAN” we do?
3 k3 }2 y. O4 J1 S$ }" t& n– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR+ a" m% Q2 z- k
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
1 S4 n& I. h) u3 T J" D7 E– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES( J3 ]: v( {, R6 O
5 D7 _1 B0 |3 [' a3 m
• Alternative Evaluation
" T, M6 y+ S' z, I \– What are the options?) e9 D( o2 y4 {/ d9 V* l F2 y9 Z
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options) T2 y7 x+ c" K4 S* y* f& z; I/ B
– How does this option “FIT”?9 o) z! K7 B/ B% r, ]. y/ \/ j
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
8 ~7 L) ?9 y& o4 w! p– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
" ~8 i% ~$ `4 f' I% ~" h& |& G- d
• Decision( S6 q a' }+ @/ _; t/ I9 `
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).% B. [2 U5 r( p! _) K
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING+ S- b) X: D$ c: T/ Z! W
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?7 E" ~' ?" ]/ A' S+ d
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?# c( j7 [) ]; t2 j) r
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
* p! W; j* S% d& e* o5 d• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)# o7 X, k' {9 u0 o9 }! Q x$ f5 g7 |
• Why NOT the other options?
: e: W1 d4 b+ {$ B% {- d6 C4 u• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
$ U% D# L& q: x8 qneed to be made?
! n, |1 ~; p# y* N6 T& a/ o) [; O% E! F/ T+ w* I
• Action Plan% _, U( G5 S2 O4 d0 T5 O
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
: P1 k0 U: J2 O3 E$ e. d– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your) P! {" }7 `0 `! ?2 `- g
decision* @7 b! \0 p- F$ O
– details about timing; z$ @, F" Y& j; z+ `- u1 ?
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’, R, ^; j! N, X! T* e
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
- O) x/ ~/ G: L) J# [– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
4 Q+ ~' H/ R0 E1 t1 o7 q) t \2 c! d; }) ]! e" ^# W4 D
Firm Valuation
6 H( D: _' S/ E+ _ ~, O! c• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
: {! c3 W& s! c& C; t• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
3 `- j0 ~4 i A4 B& ^1 h5 |9 }– Net Book Value J, {1 n7 N" u7 a
– Economic Appraisal" C8 c5 d0 @( B
– Capitalization of Earnings
6 s3 d; j# q6 j1 U- G, l+ A• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the- v; g* ~+ R- ]/ \2 b5 u' A) M) t
company is worth.
' A/ i: ?& Z# c! p( F" e( z• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???: \+ R: {! S0 r1 C/ Q: L
) [7 L M* ^+ c/ h Net Book Value (NBV)
/ L2 |; S/ E! d( |) H– Total Assets - Total Liabilities" O1 o" t% @# P1 [7 t
• a.k.a.. the equity4 @, i2 T3 _6 c3 Y! K
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets. }6 b1 g( {( [6 W! k# e5 M
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet# D6 p! B" z' J" w+ q
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business( J& ^! Y4 u2 |) T* e1 U
5 Z+ M, g& j+ A3 V# f$ D
Economic Appraisal (EA)
: ^7 u Z. `7 E1 `– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets; q) _# [- c+ M) V% U# I, V& @
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
5 o: _. C9 E: A$ ?5 i– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets8 ^/ r3 y% l% C
* E7 E: G9 X n8 s& J) I5 E Capitalization of Earnings (CE)$ B% T1 g2 q1 L! K
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
# g% G; D8 ]6 ^8 g3 b4 Z) ?( n• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.& p4 v6 D- ~% F) v2 M/ G9 S M& Y
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value' S' L, G$ C; Z3 l! X
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
2 E" ]5 {# E& b8 H6 T X; W. C" D• Assuming changes (projected statement)$ Z" b4 Z' q5 Y8 \
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
1 Y+ S( a6 o/ ~0 l$ D– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
% Y4 n7 F/ L- j: j! L% s6 z" }- V– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
, v4 ]9 G2 W* F) n3 ? j7 h' |3 \: q% o5 Y0 ~9 J P' G! [
• P/E Multiple! o8 {5 j' n6 |. b
– Rules of thumb;7 D6 b3 L, S) A t' x# V5 a+ m( D
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
( d1 K& n+ s: ~! ?from 5 to 15." V: [7 I5 b4 k
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
( K1 I) m, I% g; m O" r• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
, t I v/ e% Y- [2 F% g– growth increases a multiple$ R" D6 [# J: O% k) ~8 N
– risk decreases a multiple
0 e* c, b' t [0 u* R0 C7 A; x$ V6 w; A6 v+ ^$ W/ J3 ?: M
Their Associated Ratios7 J0 ?) @ C, z5 G$ U: d( u
• Profitability;
7 ]& j5 y& C4 B) m% ^+ V3 }– Business goal - to make $$
9 y. D6 h- ?' k, l ~– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales% I- E# W; f0 a& G9 E
• Stability;6 k3 v) s, K4 p
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)' B+ z4 V: _9 e6 z
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
0 s: U/ W+ b f5 u* c d, _1 L
9 q' X8 n& U5 W1 ^) v; \5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
; z$ @3 ?. ?0 {9 ]" F% V$ h4 F • Liquidity;
! @5 r( \8 [! y$ {* A– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations9 L6 S; T! s3 P0 Z* O+ l* ]1 v
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm# P# r% k# ]! N' u4 z, ?
obligations); L) _6 i" r7 ^* ~# a
• Efficiency;
' n+ Z6 X" j8 V( I$ T! F1 U( }– Business goal - to efficiently use assets/ K* k* ~2 R* j0 m1 G
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments; J& b! P4 t f4 K
0 E7 Y) H3 i7 U1 V* T' o: H& G+ D
• Growth;6 f ~# K }% M; W7 F
– Business goal - to increase in size
) z2 k9 t" G+ y! \– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth1 C. ]$ `5 p! F( }" V- j" V
. Y* K8 |) {/ H! x: b
Interpreting the Ratios
G* z7 V5 {3 a# x! x• Profitability;; n* u1 \! e; N5 O c! N) S$ y
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
8 l! M `7 E* s. y6 s VI/S items * 100 = %
' W+ i/ }8 f) m" [# r" S1 x5 { Sales1 U( T0 }7 R1 C5 i3 ~9 B
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
) Q( t/ p! ?4 N6 u3 b! l! r4 v– Return on Investment/Equity" F# y: c6 ]9 @+ }+ [
Profit ATB4D = %
h- x. O) _& t9 S Y) ?( L9 M* UAverage Equity9 F2 F$ r- a2 Z1 D' J
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2], ]7 j( R7 A- d2 T
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners/ K0 f5 Q! F' r
. K0 d. t( J7 @ M1 H
• Stability;0 \. k$ s4 C% z2 s: Z: j
– Net Worth: Total Assets
6 }: q% |! J: }5 ?0 m# S+ HTotal Equity = %
' l \3 F# [% H% U$ \3 ]. b4 QTotal Assets
" K! C1 F+ L3 P( k• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money4 Q$ `, c. s4 t% |
– Debt to Assets6 r' |, }9 |7 {% X0 d7 N, v% b! V/ r) ~
Total Debt = % , ?. T6 D3 g( j
Total Assets4 o O/ k1 Q4 O! G, X& L q
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
2 }- |0 p6 V/ k5 n– Interest Coverage
% f. m* `" R& C5 |7 o; k& E, ] y EBIT = # times
5 H( r0 s2 y" X, \% MInterest Expense
6 }( J6 N7 {# A• tells us how many times we can pay interest5 y/ S" X, i) b4 ]' o- l0 Y8 C) y
% d3 W7 }2 Q, Z" E" a& W0 z• Liquidity;
D, A" F- X, D/ ~– Current Ratio r( _& [) U8 ]5 h3 a; e1 d
Current Assets = X:1
. E) I5 `0 F1 ?% r- q+ vCurrent Liabilities
9 Z7 X9 }8 ]4 l$ s2 Y& K5 h' b; V• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts% P' B% V9 ]0 g% Y
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
5 H; k. a1 T. r– Acid Test+ U! C& T a' \
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1
/ J6 a D _1 ^Current Liabilities
% U+ D; g6 }$ j0 @& d• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
' h$ t/ p! C$ Z- ZRULE OF THUMB: 1:15 f+ E/ W5 P' Z4 h
W( J- E0 i" x7 W– Working Capital6 g3 o7 W) e) I% |! L
C.A - C.L = $X
, o9 k. |. `' ?$ d. ^• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
" R5 M! }' J: @ L: Q7 x/ {8 ]! o1 v
Efficiency;3 n. [' x5 ^% C2 T1 y3 ]
– Age of Receivables
" i; A) ^3 R. T- o( [Accounts Receivabl = # Days
8 S+ Q# I5 C( W- W% u (Sales / 365)
" f R; {9 R5 G/ W• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
; s$ R. j: Q3 A% P, b
" i3 H/ t1 j0 b– Age Of Payables
& {3 e; ^4 J1 [, NAccounts Payable = # Days
9 r" u" Z3 {# Q1 L m(Purchases* / 365)% f: X% l! j6 E) `
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
7 A+ M. ^$ V% c( Q" ]# }- @: q& J% u7 ]% m* O, i# K9 h6 k
– Age of Inventory z5 H) G- b+ U* G
Inventory = # Days
7 B' l) N2 M: @- i" G0 x(COGS / 365)
3 D( j+ X1 D1 T• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse _0 X5 U |4 }4 p
$ S2 y2 S9 B& j' x
• Growth;
8 ?* t' o, o' S8 [* c$ Z– Sales
1 _8 x& I s9 \1 s7 s– Net Income! D# }2 Z7 g' o& Z3 ^7 T5 B/ t
– Total Assets* V/ ^) _$ C7 @8 s( J# R# V
– Equity
& F+ ^+ }2 n5 L$ zYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %) p" W$ G3 V% |
Yr. 1
+ [6 U4 g: P8 j' @# {' j, s• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)% T6 ] d6 f: u( C
+ P/ l* o$ m" v- v! DUnderstanding Ratios
7 \4 ~- |- @/ q& c• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
+ {3 o* X o& T c& n• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
2 |# Q; r7 E/ |( U• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”. l; o& q/ \: F& x7 l1 B
– Which number caused the change?
5 y2 W% S: v( `; t9 q I3 ~' Z! k– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.8 b: N/ S/ j: ?! _+ P
– Will these trends continue?
# L& h3 e% W8 }6 n- Z+ X0 p" L– How does the company compare to the industry?+ P/ W* |: M9 C' {
/ V! [$ O x2 ^% @9 `6 i
# l& h: f( V ]$ [. a2 u
Classifying Costs
; T& F# w/ {! p; z, J• Variable Costs) e+ [* z; I4 @7 t2 ]/ d
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)/ |$ o& t' c$ a
• Fixed Costs* w1 s- d% h7 z; C, G) J1 I
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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